对于次贷危机的总损失，新一代“末日博士”Nouriel Roubini做了最新的预测。
在其看来，次贷危机的总损失将达3.6万亿美元，其中1.6万亿美元来自非证券化的借贷业务，其中美国金融机构承担1.1万亿美元；证券化的借贷业务损失则达到2万亿美元，美国金融机构将承担7000亿美元左右。两者相加，总体损失为3.6万亿美元，美国金融机构承担其中一半即1.8万亿美元。
Roubin进一步分析，认为若美国金融机构在承担上述1.8万亿美元的损失之后仍要维持足够的资金充裕度，那么则还必须补充1-1.4万亿美元的资本金——任重道远阿。
完全的分析请看下面的英文版摘要:
Tag:Roubini,次贷危机
- Loan losses on a total of $12.37 trillion unsecuritized loans are expected to reach $1.6 trillion. Of these, U.S. banks and brokers are expected to incur $1.1 trillion.
- Mark-to-market writedowns based on derivatives prices and cash bond indices on a further $10.84 trillion in securities reached about $2 trillion ($1.92 trillion.) About 40% of these securities (and losses) are held abroad according to flow-of-funds data. U.S. banks and broker dealers are assumed to incur a share of 30-35%, or $600-700 billion in securities writedowns.
- Total loan losses and securities writedowns on U.S. originated assets are expected to reach about $3.6 trillion. The U.S. banking sector is exposed to half of this figure, or $1.8 trillion (i.e. $1.1 trillion loan losses + $700bn writedowns.)
- FDIC-insured banks’ capitalization is $1.3 trillion as of Q3 2008; investment banks had $110bn in equity capital as of Q3 2008. Past recapitalization via TARP 1 funds of $230bn and private capital of $200bn still leaves the U.S. banking system borderline insolvent if our loss estimates materialize.
- In order to restore safe lending, additional private and/or public capital in the order of $1 – 1.4 trillion is needed. This magnitude calls for a comprehensive solution along the lines of a ‘bad bank’ as proposed by policy makers or an outright restructuring through a new RTC.
- Back in September, Nouriel Roubini proposed a solution for the banking crisis that also addresses the root causes of the financial turmoil in the housing and the household sectors. The HOME (Home Owners’ Mortgage Enterprise) program combines a RTC to deal with toxic assets, a HOLC to reduce homeowers’ debt, and a RFC to recapitalize viable banks.
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