摩根斯坦利的前任全球策略官Barton Biggs近期在为新书“Wealth, War and Wisdom”做宣传时顺便对美股发表了看法。此君目前在合伙掌管Traxis Partners对冲基金，资产规模在15亿美元——关于这个基金的故事，有兴趣的朋友可以看其此前的著作《对冲基金风云录》。作为这个行当的资深行家，其意见是不能不考虑的，尤其实在其去年3月和8月成功预言美股将很快见底之后。下面便是从Bloomberg摘引的采访部分内容(粗体为本人认为重要的观点)：

LIU: Right. All right, Barton, well then let’s talk a little bit more about the larger investing strategy in themarkets overall. You’ve said before that the "when the abyssis on the front page" your end-clients have bet against thedoomsayers. How is that depicted in your investing strategyat this point or going forward?  What are you – what aresome of the contrarian bets that you’re making right now?

BIGGS: Well, our view is that we’re either at or veryclose to an important bottom. And that right in this area,from 1275 to 1325 on the S&P, the U.S. market, which stillthe S&P was still ruled the world, is trying to dig in andmake a bottom. And it’s making that bottom at about the samelevel as it made its first bottom like this three weeks ago.And so we’re gradually increasing our risk and our exposureto equities.
And in terms of contrarian bets, well, we have acontrarian bet that the investment banks, that thefinancials, are going to be strong performers when and if the market rallies. And they’ve obviously been – they’reobviously a group that has been crushed here and everybodyis very negative on and they continue to decline and actedbadly last week, but if the market rallies, there’s a lot ofshorts in the investment banks, and they are extremelyoversold. And so I can see a 20, 25 percent rally in a lotof those stocks and occurring over a short period of time,two or three weeks.

LIU: And do you think, Barton, that the rally is primarily because of the Fed rate cut?

BIGGS: No, the – well the rally – they’ve certainly -the Fed rate cut helps a lot. The fiscal stimulus programhelps a little. All kinds of normal adjustments that are occurring, like the decline in treasury yields, isincreasing the amount of refi that’s going on and so a lotof things are occurring.
But it’s – the important thing for us is that the markets, by all our measures, is very oversold, that there is a great deal of bearishness and we can – we tracksentiment in a consistent quantitative rational way, wehope, and it shows that sentiment is very extreme.
And then at the same time, you’re seeing that evaluations, compared to inflation, compared to interestrates, compared to – the whole series of measures,valuations are very, very cheap. And so it’s hard not to bebullish, unless you think we’re going into some kind ofcredit abyss. And I think that’s unlikely.

LIU: You know Barton, I just want to get very quicklyin the minute that we have to get your outlook on oil forinstance, which is certainly a commodity that gets affectedby such events like wars.
You’ve written recently in Newsweek that a year fromnow, stocks, the dollar, inflation, will be higher, and oil,gold, and the euro lower. Where do you think oil could betrading a year from now?

BIGGS: Well I think oil could be – I think oil could bearound $80, $80 a barrel. And that’s lower, that’s not ahuge decline, but it’s a change in the upward momentum. I’msure oil’s going to $150 or $200 in the next three, five,seven years. But it would – can it go to $80 in the next sixor seven months in a worldwide slowdown?  Absolutely.

截止2月1日的交易周中，以S&P 500指数为代表的美股走出了5年来最强劲的上升行情，然而很可惜，此后美股走势正如“美股后市仍需反复”一文所言，又快速走出了掉头行情。S&P 500指数在距离1400点一步之遥处反转，截止2月8日的交易周里将前一周的升幅几乎全部跌去，可谓是打哪里来回哪里去。

正因为目前全球金融界的动荡都来自于美国的次级贷危机，因此美国金融市场尤其是美股的一举一动便成为了未来走势的重要风向标。虽然前周美股大跌，但从长远来看目前美股的局面并不算太坏。

美联储连续减息两次催生了截止2月1日那一周的大涨，但是这样消息面刺激的大涨终究是外力推动，若此后美股延续上升势头走下去，反而令人担心做多动力消耗过快。在经历了此后的下跌调整之后，美股反而获得了更好的“起步”位置。

本次下跌，S&P 500指数的14日RSI止步于40以上，而不似此前每次下跌均要下探30，这往往是反转前的一个重要迹象。若S&P 500指数的RSI指标能在40的位置起步，经过指数上升顺利突破60，而不似此前的一波波反弹行情那样RSI一到60就回头，那么一定程度上可以确认这一波上涨是反转而非反弹。同时，其MACD指标虽然接近粘连但未死叉，若能进一步上升再次呈现多头扩散，往往会出现一波幅度较大的上升行情。

信心交易者网站指出，目前美股的“笨钱”看多指数为29%，而“聪明钱”看多指数为67%，两者分歧高达38%。1997年以来，一共有124个交易日这两个指标分歧超过35%，而这些交易日的三个月回报有89%为正，上涨的交易日回报平均为10.3%，而下跌的交易日回报平均为-1.7%，可见从历史来看，目前属于风报比极高的中线做多位置。