过去一周，美股并无大波动。S&P 500指数以1355.86点开盘，最高见1367.94点，最低见1327.04点，最后报收1353.11点，上涨3.12点，涨幅0.23%。

从日K线图上来看，自今年1月以来，S&P 500指数始终在构筑一个对称三角形形态，目前已经临近尾声，因此近期波动越来越小。只要三角形形态不演化失败，那么就意味着美股即将迎来方向性选择。

向上还是向下？这是一个问题。在过去几周中，笔者曾经引用过许多研究者对于近期形态的历史研究，大多数结果都认为未来三个月到六个月内获得正回报的可能居多，而信心交易者网站的笨钱看多指数目前为38%，聪明钱看多指数比目前为63%，两者差值正好为25%，同样处于历史上的看多区域。以此说来，此前一月低点形成的支撑应当对未来行情依然有效。

基于历史，我们可以期盼对称三角形最后以向上作为突破选择。但是，本着小心使得万年船的精神，投资者不妨多等待，待突破完成甚至确认后再入市做多。至少就笔者而言，会待S&P 500指数突破1397.38点后再入场。

其实，无论美股还是A股，大势固然重要，但是行业才是决定胜负的关键。今年以来美股虽然表现令人失望，但是原材料、农业、天然气、运输类股份表现依旧不错，即使看错大势，选对行业一样可以赚钱。至于美股近期具体哪些行业走强，读者不妨细看下表：

过去一周间，美股小幅反弹，S&P 500指数以1331.92点开盘，最高见1369.32点，最低见1320.32点，最后报收1349.99点，全周上涨18.70点，涨幅为1.40%。不过，距离收复此前一周大阴线，仍有相当距离。

日线图上来看，S&P 500指数周一至周三连续三天上升，周四却出现一根大阴线进行回调，至于周五则是下影线极长的小阳线。周五当日，坏消息频频，比如密歇根消费者信心指数由78.4下跌至69.6；全美最大的电器零售商BestBuy（百思买）则发出盈利警告，使市场对于全美零售业产生担忧；瑞士联合银行估计全球金融机构为次级贷还需拨备2030亿美元，在如此众多的坏消息冲击下，S&P 500指数周五仍能上涨，已属难能可贵的。

下周一是美国的总统日(President’s Day，二月的第三个星期一)，美股将休市。从以往的惯例来看，总统日后的第一个交易日，市场往往表现不尽人意。信心交易者网站对此有统计显示，市场获得正回报的几率在50%左右，但是平均回报率却仅为-0.1%。

更何况，在经历了此前周一到周三的连续上涨后，S&P 500指数的诸多短期技术指标都处于超买位置，此后的调整并未使其回到合适的位置。在这样的前提下，对于短期美股的走向仍该秉持谨慎的态度，做好应付进一步反复的准备——毕竟美股迄今还没有打破去年10月以来的“熊市反弹”格局。

从技术面来看，S&P 500指数日线的14日RSI止步于50，更不要说冲击60之上，更是再次确认了“熊市反弹”格局。下周若S&P 500指数能够突破1377.38，则未来几周可能走势转好。

摩根斯坦利的前任全球策略官Barton Biggs近期在为新书“Wealth, War and Wisdom”做宣传时顺便对美股发表了看法。此君目前在合伙掌管Traxis Partners对冲基金，资产规模在15亿美元——关于这个基金的故事，有兴趣的朋友可以看其此前的著作《对冲基金风云录》。作为这个行当的资深行家，其意见是不能不考虑的，尤其实在其去年3月和8月成功预言美股将很快见底之后。下面便是从Bloomberg摘引的采访部分内容(粗体为本人认为重要的观点)：

LIU: Right. All right, Barton, well then let’s talk a little bit more about the larger investing strategy in themarkets overall. You’ve said before that the "when the abyssis on the front page" your end-clients have bet against thedoomsayers. How is that depicted in your investing strategyat this point or going forward?  What are you – what aresome of the contrarian bets that you’re making right now?

BIGGS: Well, our view is that we’re either at or veryclose to an important bottom. And that right in this area,from 1275 to 1325 on the S&P, the U.S. market, which stillthe S&P was still ruled the world, is trying to dig in andmake a bottom. And it’s making that bottom at about the samelevel as it made its first bottom like this three weeks ago.And so we’re gradually increasing our risk and our exposureto equities.
And in terms of contrarian bets, well, we have acontrarian bet that the investment banks, that thefinancials, are going to be strong performers when and if the market rallies. And they’ve obviously been – they’reobviously a group that has been crushed here and everybodyis very negative on and they continue to decline and actedbadly last week, but if the market rallies, there’s a lot ofshorts in the investment banks, and they are extremelyoversold. And so I can see a 20, 25 percent rally in a lotof those stocks and occurring over a short period of time,two or three weeks.

LIU: And do you think, Barton, that the rally is primarily because of the Fed rate cut?

BIGGS: No, the – well the rally – they’ve certainly -the Fed rate cut helps a lot. The fiscal stimulus programhelps a little. All kinds of normal adjustments that are occurring, like the decline in treasury yields, isincreasing the amount of refi that’s going on and so a lotof things are occurring.
But it’s – the important thing for us is that the markets, by all our measures, is very oversold, that there is a great deal of bearishness and we can – we tracksentiment in a consistent quantitative rational way, wehope, and it shows that sentiment is very extreme.
And then at the same time, you’re seeing that evaluations, compared to inflation, compared to interestrates, compared to – the whole series of measures,valuations are very, very cheap. And so it’s hard not to bebullish, unless you think we’re going into some kind ofcredit abyss. And I think that’s unlikely.

LIU: You know Barton, I just want to get very quicklyin the minute that we have to get your outlook on oil forinstance, which is certainly a commodity that gets affectedby such events like wars.
You’ve written recently in Newsweek that a year fromnow, stocks, the dollar, inflation, will be higher, and oil,gold, and the euro lower. Where do you think oil could betrading a year from now?

BIGGS: Well I think oil could be – I think oil could bearound $80, $80 a barrel. And that’s lower, that’s not ahuge decline, but it’s a change in the upward momentum. I’msure oil’s going to $150 or $200 in the next three, five,seven years. But it would – can it go to $80 in the next sixor seven months in a worldwide slowdown?  Absolutely.

截止2月1日的交易周中，以S&P 500指数为代表的美股走出了5年来最强劲的上升行情，然而很可惜，此后美股走势正如“美股后市仍需反复”一文所言，又快速走出了掉头行情。S&P 500指数在距离1400点一步之遥处反转，截止2月8日的交易周里将前一周的升幅几乎全部跌去，可谓是打哪里来回哪里去。

正因为目前全球金融界的动荡都来自于美国的次级贷危机，因此美国金融市场尤其是美股的一举一动便成为了未来走势的重要风向标。虽然前周美股大跌，但从长远来看目前美股的局面并不算太坏。

美联储连续减息两次催生了截止2月1日那一周的大涨，但是这样消息面刺激的大涨终究是外力推动，若此后美股延续上升势头走下去，反而令人担心做多动力消耗过快。在经历了此后的下跌调整之后，美股反而获得了更好的“起步”位置。

本次下跌，S&P 500指数的14日RSI止步于40以上，而不似此前每次下跌均要下探30，这往往是反转前的一个重要迹象。若S&P 500指数的RSI指标能在40的位置起步，经过指数上升顺利突破60，而不似此前的一波波反弹行情那样RSI一到60就回头，那么一定程度上可以确认这一波上涨是反转而非反弹。同时，其MACD指标虽然接近粘连但未死叉，若能进一步上升再次呈现多头扩散，往往会出现一波幅度较大的上升行情。

信心交易者网站指出，目前美股的“笨钱”看多指数为29%，而“聪明钱”看多指数为67%，两者分歧高达38%。1997年以来，一共有124个交易日这两个指标分歧超过35%，而这些交易日的三个月回报有89%为正，上涨的交易日回报平均为10.3%，而下跌的交易日回报平均为-1.7%，可见从历史来看，目前属于风报比极高的中线做多位置。